The autonomous community of Spain is the latest region to hit the headlines in their bid for independence. The region has regained considerable political and economic autonomy since Spain’s transition to democracy in the late 1970’s and early 80’s, growing to be one of the most economically dynamic communities of Spain. A referendum in 2014 indicated majority support for Catalonia to be recognized as a state and for that state to be independent, although turnout was low. Setting the wheels in motion for secession by 2017. That plan, despite being suspended by the Spanish Constitution Court, was deemed to be completed regardless and with an illegal referendum held on 1st October 2017.
In Spain’s biggest existential drama of recent years, it is Puigdemont, President of the Government of Catalonia who is playing the central role. On 10th October 2017 he declared independence only to immediately suspend it, in a move paralleled to that of Slovenia. Whilst the cases Slovenia and Catalonia have an obvious similarity, in that an illegal referendum led to an unrecognised declaration of independence followed quickly by its suspension in a bid to buy time, it must be acknowledged that fundamentally the situations are worlds apart.
Slovenia’s succession from Yugoslavia and claim for independence was clean and swift. United as a republic, they obtained majority rule within the Slovenian parliament. Negotiations with Belgrade failed leading to a referendum that rallied the republic but was ultimately deemed illegal in the eyes of Yugoslavia. Independence was declared and suspended to regroup and buy more time with Belgrade negotiations. As the negotiation process was long, drawn out and ultimately fruitless eventually the international community started to pay attention.
During this period of negotiation, the Slovenes were piece by piece already establishing a structure for the political and economic autonomy needed to break away from Yugoslavia. It was already organising; control over foreign trade, custom levies, the introduction of compulsory military services for its own forces, currency and passports.
In comparison to the years of bloodshed that followed in Yugoslav conflicts as the other republics struggled for independence, Slovenia’s bid for independence was a success. But is this a model for others to strive for? For Puigdemont to apply that formula for Catalonia seems very short-sighted.
Catalonia is clearly divided as separatist and unionist rallies have been commonplace since the announcement of the referendum. Puigdemont’s government suggest that 43% of Catalans voted and 90% voted for independence despite police intervention. However, in a referendum declared illegal by the constitutional court, those opposing independence likely did not vote or participate in the result counting.
Currently accounting for generating 20% of Spain’s wealth, the economy of Catalonia hangs in the balance as major companies including their two biggest banks move their registered headquarters out of the region. Catalonia is not ready for independence, with no tax-collecting, judicial, banking or customs institutions set up. But another reason why Puigdemont wants to stall.
International recognition is the one thing Catalonia will not be able to obtain. It’s hardly a surprise that Spain is firmly backed by the EU, as member state and with far reaching influence, Spain knows the international community can do little for Catalonia. A solution will only be searched for within the parameters of the Spanish constitution. Resolutions must come from within, i.e. through negotiations and compromise with Madrid.
The problem remains that the central government will not tolerate Puigdemont’s insubordination of the constitution law and court rulings. Without the threat of international mediation, the Spanish government have the luxury to decide if it wants to enter into negotiations. Catalonia need now to declare its position – independent or not. Failure to do so with trigger an article in the Spanish constitution allowing the central government to take control of the autonomous region.
